Using Historical Data & Engineering Economy to Predict Future Events
Magdy Akladios, Andre D. Tonye

Abstract
It is customary to utilize historical data to predict future events. This study addresses the issue of safety in the petroleum industry and how safety culture can potentially influence the state of health and safety systems of different companies. It includes a comparison of the safety cultures of two large oil companies before and after they experienced major incident utilizing integrate management information system (IMIS) data base from Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) website; the two major incidents are the Exxon Valdez incident of 1989 and the British Petroleum (BP) -Gulf of Mexico oil spill of 2010. It was discover that, increasing OSHA inspections at Exxon after the Exxon Valdez accident has lead to the reduction of violations. Furthermore, fines attributed to safety violations found was higher after Exxon Valdez incident than before. For the total of inspections held by OSHA officers at BP and Exxon from 1973 to 2010, more safety violations were observed at BP, 82%, which was greater than the percentage of violations at Exxon, 66%. Standards related to process safety management of highly hazardous chemicals and general requirement standard were the top two violations in both companies. It is hypothesized that the number of safety violations at BP after the deep water horizon in 2010 will follow approximately the same path as observed at Exxon after the Valdez incident. The reinforcement of process safety management of highly hazardous chemical will improve incontestably the safety state in both companies.

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