The Determinants of Supply of Kenya’s Major Agricultural Crop Exports from 1963 to 2012
Lenity Kananu Maugu, Rael Mwirigi, John Njoroge Maara, Nebat Galo

Kenya has been experiencing low export growth rate in general and agricultural exports in particular and yet an increase in agricultural crop exports can contribute significantly to economic growth and improve the citizen’s welfare. This study investigated the determinants of agricultural crop exports supply for Kenya over the period 1963-2012. Annual time series data were collected from Kenya’s Statistical Abstracts and the IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS). A disequilibrium model of agricultural crop export was used. The regression results showed that the real exchange rate was a significant determinant of tea, pyrethrum and horticulture exports but not of coffee export. Productive capacity as proxied by GDP was found to be a significant in determining coffee, tea and aggregate exports. El-Nino rainfall, as captured by a dummy, was significant for coffee exports, while trade liberalization, also captured by a dummy was only significant in determining pyrethrum exports.

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